In an article titled “Erdogan’s Dilemma” published on Nov 18th 2013, The Economist claims that if he wants to keep power, he will have to change the AK party’s rules to let him stand for a fourth term as prime minister, which would only make Turks more worried about his sultan-like delusions of grandeur. If he still wants to become president, on the other hand, he will have to reconcile himself to handing power to somebody else, probably Mr Gul, a much more popular figure.
The article continues: “What may make the hand-over more awkward still is a third worry: that the economy will have a difficult 2014. The euphoria that swept second-tier emerging markets such as Turkey, Indonesia and Brazil along in the wake of China and India has ebbed. Turkish growth slowed in 2013 to only just over 3%. In America, meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s plans to “taper” its policy of quantitative easing has put new pressure on countries that need capital inflows. One of the most exposed is Turkey, which has low savings, a huge current-account deficit in the range of 6-8% of GDP and a high dependence on volatile inflows of portfolio capital. Some indicators of vulnerability to a squeeze on capital put Turkey at the top of the list. No wonder the lira has been falling; it will surely depreciate further in 2014, putting even more pressure on the government.”
Mr. John Peets gives his(?) advice at the end of the article:
“Make way for Gul – What is the best way through this nexus of troubles? The answer is surely for Mr Erdogan to abandon his ambitions, take the ceremonial job of president and hand the prime ministership to Mr Gul. The two men were founders of the AK party in 2001, and Mr Gul served briefly as prime minister in 2002-03, when Mr Erdogan was temporarily banned from office. The Anglophone, emollient Mr Gul would have a better chance of winning back voters and getting on with the neighbours—and with the European Union. Indeed, he could be the last hope of reviving Turkey’s moribund EU membership talks, with a view to completing them by 2023.”
This may be the way the Anglo Saxon policy dictates, but certainly not the ideal solution for secular Turks.
In fact, Turkey should find his own way through this western dictated chain of events, and break the harnessing game of the imperial powers over Turkey.